Finland’s center-right party was projected to win the general election held on Sunday, according to a prediction by the Finnish public broadcaster Yle. The National Coalition Party was expected to win 48 out of the 200 seats in parliament, surpassing the far-right Finns Party, which was projected to come in second with 46 seats. The ruling Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin, were projected to come in third with 43 seats.
The National Coalition’s leader, Petteri Orpo, hailed the projection as a “very strong victory,” though he emphasized that it was still a forecast. Similarly, Finns Party leader Riikka Purra called the result “excellent,” but acknowledged that it was not yet official.
As of the time of the projection, with 80% of votes counted, the National Coalition and the Finns Party were tied at 20.2%, with the Social Democrats slightly behind at 20.0%. The voter turnout was 71.9%, comparable to the previous election in 2019.
Under Finland’s parliamentary system, the largest party in parliament typically gets the first opportunity to form a government, and the prime minister’s office has traditionally been held by the leading party since the 1990s. It remains to be seen whether the National Coalition Party will be able to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government, or whether a coalition government will be necessary.
Prime Minister Marin struck an optimistic note despite her party’s third-place showing in the projection, saying that she was “very grateful” for the high voter turnout and that she would wait until the final results were in before drawing any conclusions.
The election had been closely watched, as it was seen as a test of the popularity of Marin’s government, which had garnered international attention for its young, predominantly female leadership. The COVID-19 pandemic was also a major issue in the campaign, with parties differing on how best to manage the crisis.
The outcome of the election is likely to have implications for Finland’s economic policies, with the center-right traditionally favoring fiscal austerity and the social democrats advocating for a more expansive welfare state. It may also have implications for Finland’s foreign policy, as the Finns Party has been critical of the European Union and immigration, while the Social Democrats have generally supported EU integration and a more liberal immigration policy.
