The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has reported that global trade in 2022 was worth a record $32 trillion, but the second half of the year saw a downturn due to deteriorating economic conditions. UNCTAD warned that the outlook for trade remains “uncertain” in 2023, citing geopolitical tensions, high commodity prices, record levels of public debt, and high-interest rates as reasons for concern. The organization predicts that global trade will stagnate in the first half of 2023, but positive factors such as a weaker US dollar, stabilized shipping costs, and fewer supply chain disruptions could give the trade a boost in the second half of the year.
However, UNCTAD noted that growth in green goods is here to stay, driven by momentum on climate action. In its latest Technology and Innovation Report, UNCTAD characterized this moment as the “beginning of a green technological revolution” and predicted that the market for electric cars, solar and wind energy, green hydrogen, and other environmentally friendly technologies will quadruple in value by 2030 to reach $2.1 trillion.
The report also warned that developed countries were capturing most of the economic opportunities related to green technologies while developing countries were falling behind. UNCTAD urged the international community to support emerging green industries in developing economies through global trade rules and technology transfers to ensure that developing countries could “catch up economically while helping to protect the planet.” Despite the uncertain outlook for global trade, the organization believes that international trade patterns will increasingly reflect the green economic transition underway.
